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 Thread (14 posts)
Jaxon26  7/22/08 11:32:37 AM

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My guess (that's all it is) for the KOTORO launch - all the speculation about SWG's future is way premature. If nothing else, they will keep it going right to the end to bleed out the subscription rates. $14.99/mo @ 100K subscribers is still ~1.5M/month or $18M/year. I would bet still a profit margin for LA

 

Like post saying "why should I start SWG if it's ending?" Well that's more than likely at least 24 month out - so if you want to wait 2 years to play a Star Wars MMO that's up to you

 
Daffid011  7/22/08 12:00:55 PM

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Where are the 100k subscribers coming from?

 
namelessbob  7/22/08 12:13:12 PM

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"The internet is a series of tubes."
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Originally posted by Daffid011

Where are the 100k subscribers coming from?

 

SWG has 100k+ subscribers (Was in an article someone posted a couple months ago), but that number also includes those who buy the station pass and have subscriptions to every game.

-----------------------------
No MMOs Currently just waiting to either be thrilled or disappointed by WAR.

jadan2000  7/22/08 12:36:59 PM

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Originally posted by Jaxon26

My guess (that's all it is) for the KOTORO launch - all the speculation about SWG's future is way premature. If nothing else, they will keep it going right to the end to bleed out the subscription rates. $14.99/mo @ 100K subscribers is still ~1.5M/month or $18M/year. I would bet still a profit margin for LA

 

Like post saying "why should I start SWG if it's ending?" Well that's more than likely at least 24 month out - so if you want to wait 2 years to play a Star Wars MMO that's up to you


 

i think its been a long time since SWG had 100k subscribers

 
musicmann  7/22/08 12:46:17 PM

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You guys with your sub numbers and buisness models make me laugh. First off, LA owns the IP not the game itself. The only thing LA makes money off of is probably a flat fee that SOE pays them each yr. for letting them use the SW brand.

Whatever the gross profit is at the end of the yr., SOE is the one that has to figure out what their net profit will be, after all is said and done.

Remember, SOE is the one that has to maintain servers and pay a dev staff. On top of the regular expenses, such as insurance, building note/lease, utilites, energy costs, and a whole lot more.

I honestly don't think LA gives two cents about SOE or SWG anymore. If they did, they would have pushed SOE to do a major marketing blitz, and we all know that hasn't happened.

SWG will eventually die off when LA/BioWare has a more formal announcement, and more info on how the game mechanics will be laid out. I just can't see LA letting two SW mmo's compete against each other.

 LA knows the NGE was a massive failure and is the biggest reason i think that instead of them pushing SOE to create a new SW mmo they went with a company like BioWare.

They let themselves get talked into ok'ing the changes in SWG and now are sitting with egg on their face and a tarnashed SW brand in the gaming world.

Only time will tell who is on the mark when it comes to what is actually gonna take place.

 
Daffid011  7/22/08 2:16:04 PM

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Several MMO devs/owners have stated at one time or another that roughly 20% of a games subscribers tend to log on concurrently during primetime.  While not an exact number, most agree this is true for most games on a normal night.

 

100,000 subs / 25 servers = 4,000 * 20% = 800 primetime players per server.

 

800 people isn't exactly crowded, but it is a far cry from empty also.  Personally I don't agree that the game will have 100k subscribers come Q2 2010 and doubt it has anywhere close to that now.  At least from what I can see.

Not to mention the game doesn't get 14.95 per station pass user.  Each game on the pass only gets a percentage of the total fee based on amount of time spent playing versus the amount of time spent playing other station pass games. 

 

I don't pretend to know what the threshhold for subscriber totals is for the game to be profitable or not.

 

 
GrandAm  7/22/08 4:27:23 PM

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Originally posted by Jaxon26

My guess (that's all it is) for the KOTORO launch - all the speculation about SWG's future is way premature. If nothing else, they will keep it going right to the end to bleed out the subscription rates. $14.99/mo @ 100K subscribers is still ~1.5M/month or $18M/year. I would bet still a profit margin for LA

 

Like post saying "why should I start SWG if it's ending?" Well that's more than likely at least 24 month out - so if you want to wait 2 years to play a Star Wars MMO that's up to you


 

I'm not even going to touch the sub number issue.  Don't care really.

The thing that irks me in your post is your guess that the game won't come till 2Q 2010.  What is your reason behind this guess.

I would like to point out that Bioware doesn't like to push out games before they are ready ( yes I know they are now owned by EA).  It stands to reason LA may have learned the lesson of pushing out SWG, SWGNGE, KOTOR2 before it is ready and that the Bioware estimate of 2009 probably already has this factored in and may be highly accurate.

If they are short on time between LA and EA I'm sure Bioware has the financial resources available to get this game out on time.  Assuming everyone has learned their lessons.

My guess it will be released 2009 either before summer for the kids out of school or and more likely mid Nov 09 for the holiday shopping season.  We'll know for sure when a beta is announced.

 
kryten  7/22/08 4:29:06 PM

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WOW...the walmart of mmos

Originally posted by Jaxon26

My guess (that's all it is) for the KOTORO launch - all the speculation about SWG's future is way premature. If nothing else, they will keep it going right to the end to bleed out the subscription rates. $14.99/mo @ 100K subscribers is still ~1.5M/month or $18M/year. I would bet still a profit margin for LA

 

Like post saying "why should I start SWG if it's ending?" Well that's more than likely at least 24 month out - so if you want to wait 2 years to play a Star Wars MMO that's up to you

 

lol only if you count trials

 
AveBethos  7/22/08 4:36:38 PM

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100K subs!!!  LOL!!!!!!!

Take a zero off and you would be more accurate.  10K is about the most this game has had in a long time.

 
thamighty213  7/22/08 4:40:33 PM

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I think Obraik plays it by himself

 
tillamook  7/22/08 5:41:50 PM