WAR (Warhammer Online)

Originally posted by TeamFortress

Originally posted by ProfRed

Sadly because of AoC initial sales will be down I am sure.  I would say 700-750k or so, and that it will grow to 1.25 million concurrent subs within the first four to six months. 

 

AoC had 1 million beta applications.

WAR has 800K

So initial 3 weeks sales: between 600 to 700 K is realistic.

After that is a big question, because depending on 3 factors:

- PvP fights and animation: how good will it be

- RvR (same Keeps and 1 capitol end game is good enough?)

- WotLK launch date. And since I posted in another thread: Blizz  whole new award system of attracting open World PvP to capitols and enemy cities, it could be a very rough ride to convince the hardcore of Wow PvP.

So no predictions on subs until the end of Oct. First the facts.

I'll do what I always do: Buy it and play it for the first month.

Curious that the only "new" MMORPG that was interesting enough to hold my attention longer was PotBS. Just because I didn't expect anything.

I hate the Wow-killer hype, as these games all failed. There is a pattern with these kind of games...

 

Talking about end game in the first week of sales is a little harsh as it won't effect sales. The crowds call a game a WoW-killer, not the developers. No one tries to attack any game really, they all just want a piece of the pie, the fans attack games.

Finally, where is this "as these games all failed" information coming from? Every MMO that came out that anyone ever called a WoW-killer is still online and being played.

Let me try some basic math here.  Starting with the figure of 800K beta requests.  Those who say this isn't a valid number because people take multiple beta requests do have a valid point; however, there are many people who buy multiple accounts of the same game.  And some of those people only took 1 beta request.  So let's be nice and take half of that as the actual number who played beta: 400K.

A friend of mine and I both had closed beta invites.  He played AoC, I did not as I was waiting for WAR and not willing to waste my money on a game I knew I was only playing short-term; I can always renew my CoX or Tabula Rasa account to tide me over.  He and I could NOT stop talking about how good WAR was.  Another friend of mine who also played (and is upset with) AoC said he was going to buy it just because we couldn't shut up about how good it was.  So, let's say for every two people in beta, word of mouth sells another box.  That's not unreasonable considering there are whole guilds moving from other games because of what their beta testers said about WAR; I'd even argue this is conservative.  That's another 200K sales.

So, that's 600K single box sales.  And we are on the conservative side here.  I'm assuming that at least a third of those people will buy at 2 or more copies.  So, that's another 200K sales for multiple accounts.  That's 800K.

So, as any good Price of Right contestant does, I'm going to predict a price a bit lower than what I actually think.  I'm going with 750K box sales.  I'll also say I predict 80% of those go to subscriptions. 

And I'll throw another prediction out there: in 3 months, another 300K boxes will sell as the reviews of WAR hit PC Gamer, Game Informer, etc. along with all the people in AoC that hear more about WAR being the PvP heaven AoC was supposed to be.  I'll go on record saying I don't think we will pull too many WoW players away.  WoW players have invested years into getting gear, friendships, etc., I doubt WAR's PvP goodness will pull many of them away.

Box sales i don t know and could care less about in all honesty. I said it before i ll say it again, WAR will have 1-1.5 mill subs and hold it for a long time and maybe grow more if the game stays fresh and adds good content both pve and pvp. Mythic knows they have a hit on their hands i doubt they ll pull a TOA here, and i feel they ve proven they ve learned from some mistakes they made in DAOC already. Word of mouth is the best advertising out there , this alone i feel will push it into the second largest MMO based on subs.

Originally posted by marinrider

Box count doesnt mean anything in the long run, its the amount of subs they have after, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, etc...

Vanguard could have had a ton of box sales, doesnt matter.  AoC could have had a ton of box sales, obviously doesnt matter.

 

 

OP said box count doesn't mean anything BTW. He just predicting the sales for the month.

Originally posted by grimfall

1,499,999

1,500,001

I doubt it.  AoC was more hyped that this game and they appealed to a broader base of player types.  Also AoC had fantastic reviews from all the big game magazines.  I kinda doubt that War will match AoCs numbers.  Especially after War burned the industry so bad there are people like me who are kinda bruised and not willing to pay for a game sight unseen again.

Originally posted by ethion

I doubt it.  AoC was more hyped that this game and they appealed to a broader base of player types.  Also AoC had fantastic reviews from all the big game magazines.  I kinda doubt that War will match AoCs numbers.  Especially after War burned the industry so bad there are people like me who are kinda bruised and not willing to pay for a game sight unseen again.

"Especially after AoC burned the industry so bad ..."???

Anyway I see your playing Vanguard, a game which did burn me and I was a bit down on the whole mmog thing for a bit, aoc wasnt THAT bad for me, I played it 2 months maxed a priest and got bored.

its weird but the only thing that can make me decide on whether i like a game or not is getting in and playing it.

1.5 mill sounds like a success number and a party in mythic's office.

Originally posted by grimfall

1,499,999

1,499,999.5

I do believe this might might have more and might reach around 3 million or maybe even more (Including asian market that is). If they can, just like WoW, keep the hype up with expensions then I believe that they can archieve this. If however they update slowly and spend more of the time changing stuff that does not need to be changed then they will not reach this.