Darkfall

The  problem with developing a game for 7 years is that... engine/tehnology/graphics get left behind fast.

The good part is... mostly everyone can play it smooth on any PC. (or it should).

Also this game didnt lose the vaporware flavour yet. Sure it might be down to 10% or even less but

when (if) it will be ready.. it must be a damn GOOD game to be able to make profit in a period of many new promising games getting ready to launch.

Aion, TCoS, AoC, WAR.. just to name the big ones and the new expasion for the mighty WoW (which is expected to grow even more).

Personaly I want Darkfall to be a great game. and hell we need a great and different game now more then ever but the question is... does it have any chance of success?

Why is this important?

It is because even if it will turn out to be a decent game, it wont be enough to keep it going.

It really needs to be GREAT to justify the money already spent in it and even more money that needs to be put in to hire GMs, support, tehnical staff, buy new servers, bandwith and all that goes with a MMO.

IF its not gonna turn out to be GREAT, it will not attract enough subscribers to keep it going.

They gonna need a good publisher also to get this going. and a good publisher always takes a good part of the future profits also.

Personally I dont see this one staying above the floating line with anything under 200k fast subscribers.

Sure if WoW would die tommorow and all those 10 milion would spread around the future MMO releases I wouldnt worry so much.. but that wont happen in the next 2 years for sure.

Blizzard is not only famous for games that get in TOP they are also famous for games that stay in TOP.

Anyway theres so much competition coming ahead that you really need to pull out a miracle to get a successful MMO going.

Personally i think it will be cruel. a few will be able to hold their ground and the rest will die.

Lets take LOTRO for example. It has 1 mil subscribers and growing atm from what I know. There is no doubt it turned out to be a succesful game.

It didnt have much competition though, besides TBC only Vanguard was new and promising. Vanguard failed. LOTRO turned out great but with a great company behind it, alot of money, alot of publicity, a smooth and nice launch.. and of course the great Lord of the Rings name behind it.

LOTRO is a great, beautiful and well made game, but still it took time, alot of free updates and alot of bored WoW players  to turn out succesful.

So Im asking you... what chances of success do you see in Darkfal?  (sry for my bad english/spelling btw)

I think the game could easilly hit 400k+ subcriptions if the following are met:

1) The game has 95% of the features it claims to have.

2) The graphics may be outdated but have good context to each other and make a good immersion feeling.

3) If they do self publish littile lag, cheating and bugs.

Wow has brought millions of new people into the MMO market.  I don't think these people want to play the same game design over and over.    Darkfall offers a new choice for people who try and hopefully fall in love with Darkfall game like I have in shadowbane. 

Just my thoughts.

Originally posted by tbox

I think the game could easilly hit 400k+ subcriptions if the following are met:

1) The game has 95% of the features it claims to have.

2) The graphics may be outdated but have good context to each other and make a good immersion feeling.

3) If they do self publish littile lag, cheating and bugs.

 

Wow has brought millions of new people into the MMO market.  I don't think these people want to play the same game design over and over.    Darkfall offers a new choice for people who try and hopefully fall in love with Darkfall game like I have in shadowbane. 

 

Just my thoughts.

 

The self publish thing wont work though. It only works if you dont think big numbers.

Not to mention it will cost them ALOT more to put in. Dont know if they can get it.

and yes WoW brought millions of new people but those people will judge and compare to what they started with. They like what WoW gave them and will look for that in future games.

To make them like what Darkfall has new to offer it must be made with QUALITY screaming all over.

Darkfall as a game sticks out. Just about no competition whatsoever in its concept, there is just no comparable MMORPG under development. Its a niche game and If they succeed in delivering there features and have a good beta and release id say +500K subs will be a well reachable number. And considering they dont put out fantasy sums on promotings the number of needed subs will be lower.

Not needing a state of the art computer for playing the game is just something to be happy with as i see it. I prefer good gameplay before graphics any day. Having to buy a new computer every 3-year is really annoying. But as you say, they gotta deliver good gameplay also. Darkfall features and hopefully good gameplay is Darkfalls strongest sides. And personally i think the graphics is good enough as they is.

Searched for a thread on Darkfall forums about needed subs but couldnt find it. Anyway the estimated numbers of subs needed stranded btw 50-100K. Whether this is accurate is beyond me but Darkfall wont need the same amount of subs as for example AoC and Warhammer will need.

Some insight from Tasos Flambouras about publishing: http://www.warcry.com/articles/view/devjournals/darkfalljournals/2813-Darkfall-Dev-Journal-21-Community-Q-A

[QUOTE] Community: why has Darkfall had such a hard time securing a solid publisher and with the impending release of both age of Conan and Warhammer online aren't you concerned that the game will be unable to maintain a self sustaining profitable player base considering that the other games have giant budgets and giant advertising campaigns.

Tasos Flambouras: In very simple terms, it's not so much as Darkfall having a hard time securing a publisher as it is that publishers have had a hard time securing Darkfall. I'll explain: We do have the capability to self-publish, so the competition to any publishing offer, aside from other offers, is our own plan for self-publication. In our self-publishing scheme we hire the same services that most publishers use so in effect "cutting out the middleman" is usually to our advantage, especially since as a newcomer in the gaming industry it's rare to get a fantastic deal. Furthermore, getting a publishing deal isn't crucial to us in regards to development, and we won't just jump at offers. We have the "luxury" to try to do what's best for the game in this context. That being said, we have been and still are in discussions with publishers who present a good and viable alternative to our self-publishing plan.

Giant budgets and giant advertising campaigns demand giant paydays. We definitely don't need to be a World of Warcraft killer to be successful, but the same may not be true about some of the other games in development. When faced with the question of budget allocation we decided that it's more important for us to first make as good a game as possible and then to market it on its merit. The opposite doesn't work in the long run, and quality would be compromised by taking some of the development resources and throwing them into marketing so we're betting everything on our strength. We couldn't compete with some of the large titles when it comes to marketing since it all comes down to dollars and cents, but we can still make one hell of a game. [/QUOTE]

Nice thread btw, =).

I'm sure this game will be a pretty good success, if they have what they say they have and if they release the game within the next 3 years they have a chance.

If it's released longer than 3 years fromm now, it will just fall behind the rest.

"If it delivers" _[TM] on the features that it has promised, DF certainly could attract an audience of 500K, especially if it runs well on lower end computers (from a graphics perspective)

There's certainly not a lot of other games with a similar promise/concept (except Earthrise) and I think the market is ready for something new.

I suspect several of the games coming out this year will crash and burn, so the market might be ready for DF next year (or whenever) they finally release it.

Originally posted by daemon

Personally I dont see this one staying above the floating line with anything under 200k fast subscribers.

You don't need 200k subscribers to keep a game going.  Some games on this  site only have a few hundred people playing, and they manage to keep goingg.

Lets take LOTRO for example. It has 1 mil subscribers and growing atm from what I know. There is no doubt it turned out to be a succesful game.

Where did u get that 1 million number? That is totally false. The numbers i have seen are 200k

Basicly i agree with Kyleran and Ghoul, if it releases in a good shape with all announced features it will do well, and it will not need a lot of subcribers to do well.

If they self publish it i think 100k+ would be a success, more than 200k+ would be a great success. And the best comparison is EvE, they self puplished and started with around 50-80k and have grown since that to over 200k and everyone(including CCP) say it is a huge success.

The same may be true for darkfall.. now it is just important that they release it in a good shape with all announced features within the next two years. And as a lot of the other posters said, the concept is so much different to anything else(beside Earthrise and a few other.. but all of them are in early development, and will not release within the next 3 years), which attract a huge enough, and more important loyal fanbase, if they release it in good shape.

In the end, it lies only in the hand of the DF devs to have success, they have to have a smooth launch, and the gameplay and concept will convince more than enough people.

Who wouldent wanna play a MMO as DF? This forum alone is proof of that. This is the only forum where players from all other MMOs meet to discuss.

And if MMOs as AoC can wave with one special feature infront of the WoW community.......think what DF could do if it wanted to?