Originally posted by Douhk

 

Originally posted by TheSheikh

I don't own a gaming console myself, but I do know there are many people who do not play Xbox360.

Wii and PS3 gamers will take away a large portion of the numbers they are looking to gain.

I would also bet many players will just raise an eyebrow when they learn of a barbaric sword/shield/bow/magic game with gore/nudity, and simply go back to playing GTA IV and the like.

1 year is also a very long period from PC release and I wouldn't be suprised if a revolutionary console game reveals itself in the coming year to draw the media attention.

 

I agree, the game will slowly drop down from 500k or 400k, but I don't think anything lower than 200k... it depends really on how good this game is and how many people it convinces to get better systems. From here they'll probably increase from the extra marketting of their 360 version, but nowhere near 1 mil. The only way the game will make 1 mil is if the game really starts marketting all over the place, and this game definitely has potential. The most I could see at this point in time is a stable 500k, eventually, along with WAR, and from there possibly both could increase with the help of one another... heck, maybe because of this competition they could reach 1 mil together, I already had a post of this similar idea already, but at this point I'm not so sure either of those can make that mark. Any game with 500k is doing fantastic, I don't even think EVE has those numbers.

Oh, and the only reason I quoted you Sheik instead of Vesa was because, the Xbox 360 number greatly outweighs that of the PS3 and the Wii. The statistics of people who own either of the three consoles is about %60 (360), %20, %20... but I'm sure the console version of this game will eventually move along to the other console types, if they know what's good for them.

40% is a rather large portion to have taken away from your potential subscribers.

If I had to make a bet, all factors considered, I think the launch numbers and continuing subscriber numbers will probably run about 20% to 40% higher than LotRO. Healthy numbers, but very unlikely to top 500,000 peak subscribers.

If the post 20 experience falters, however, the game could easily fall into that grey zone of sustainability, but inability to grow over time.

I'm thinking that for me personally, unless 20+ PvE is truly horrible, this is a game that will keep me busy for a few months. However, it doesn't appear at this point to be a game with mass long term appeal.

Time will tell.

Originally posted by Celestian

 

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Originally posted by GreenChaos
Why don’t we stop talking crap and start betting? I have $10,000 that say AoC hits one million subscribers in 3 months.

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lol, I'll take that bet.

i am bookmarking this for future reference

Originally posted by noptov52

 

 

I'll take that bet also, assuming you have any money left after paying the people replied before me.  This game won't sell 500k copies in the first week and it won't reach one million subscribers in three months.  How am I so sure?  Easy, I actually took a minute to look at the data.

If anyone wants to do more than BS mindlessly, they can take a quick trip to MMOG Data and look at the charts on MMO subscription numbers.  It is quite easy to see how few pay to play MMOs achieve one million subscribers ever, let alone in three months. In fact, there have only been two games which saw meteoric rises in subscription numbers from day one:  World of Warcraft and Second Life.  What do they have in common?  Easily accessible and low system requirements.

Even if we accept that Age of Conan is the best MMO ever created (I have not played it, so I cannot weigh in one way or the other), it will not reach one million subscriptions in three months and may struggle to do so ever.   The high system requirements, mature themes / rating, and the focus on PVP all limit the audience of AoC.  Don't get me wrong, those are all elements that I want in an MMO and have me very interested in giving the game a try, but the truth is that does not hold true for the MMO market as a whole.

Frankly, as long as they can manage to get a stable population of at least a hundred thousand, subscription numbers really don't matter a whole lot.  100k x $50 (roughly) = $5,000,000 in gross revenue and a revenue stream of nearly $1.5 million a month.  Those numbers might not make the game insanely profitable (ala WoW), but they are more than enough for Funcom to recoup development costs in time and to continue development via patches and expansions.

Great post, but I read that the makers of Tabula Rasa said that their game barely just made it even. because of the costs of development.

At that time (4 months after launch) they had a 0.8.% marketshare.

So 0.8% marketshare is about + 150 K subscribers. Going under 100K could mean that only "regular" maintenance would be delivered....

BTW as a side note:  I don't even think there are 1.000.000 Home PC these days that have 8800GTS cards...

Originally posted by openedge1

 

Originally posted by gamerman98

 

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Originally posted by Oriphus

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Originally posted by Ahiles

 

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Originally posted by openedge1

 

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Originally posted by Zoulz

 

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Originally posted by Raserei

 

Dont listen to teh negative reviews, this game is going to be revolutionary.

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There is absolutely nothing revolutionary about this game. Not a single thing.

They might do average - good at launch, but I don't think they will be able to keep players for the long run. AoC is more visuals than substance.

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I beg to differ...combat, visuals, gameplay style...

Nope...it is totally different than what I have played before..
But, if you can show me a game that plays the same exact way, I would be willing to try it

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You trully are delusional.

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^^ why can't you just show him the game instead of insulting him

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because he cant lol. I couldnt even find a game if he asked me the same question

 

Agreed....insults are usually from those who do not have an answer...pure and simple..

Age of Conan is unique among MMO's, with interactive quest givers with cutscenes and a lot of voiceover work (EQ2 has voice, but is still a wall of text)...Action based combat...(some mention Matrix as like AoC in this respect...it is not...it has combos, but is still press, queue and wait) Full DX10 support on release (no other game had this except after an upgrade...)

And of course nudity, fatalities system, and mature language dialog in quests

Nope...this will be a fun game, and different than any other MMO

Thats really what AOC lacks, cool animation. (dont tell me slashing some indians man head off every 20 kills is a cool animation, because its not. ON TOP OF THE FACT THAT LEFT RIGHT FRONT ATTACKS ARE THE SAME FOR THE WEAPON, MEANING IM GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH THAT ALL 80 LEVELS? no thanks.)

at least mxo had almost 10 different styles of animations for REGULAR ATTACKS, on top of the fact that each style had about 4 different animations for speed power grab EACH. So dont come on here and tell people that mxo isnt anything like AOC, because it surpasses it in every way.

MXO also took a LOT more skill than this combat system does. I'm not a hater of AOC, I think it has very good gfx along with a unique approach to the game, but it just isnt a good combat system. Anyone who actually likes it and thinks its revolutionary has probably played EQ2 & WOW. It is revolutionary compared to them, but SWG with its new form of combat, MXO's interlock, savage 2's pvp are much more interesting to watch.

anyways go ahead and flame me, because none of you spent time with mxo's pvp combat system like I did. and when i compare it to this, it just dissapoints.

(and i played about 6 different characters in the AOC beta. but only got conqueror to 20)

Originally posted by TheSheikh

Originally posted by Douhk

 

Originally posted by TheSheikh

I don't own a gaming console myself, but I do know there are many people who do not play Xbox360.

Wii and PS3 gamers will take away a large portion of the numbers they are looking to gain.

I would also bet many players will just raise an eyebrow when they learn of a barbaric sword/shield/bow/magic game with gore/nudity, and simply go back to playing GTA IV and the like.

1 year is also a very long period from PC release and I wouldn't be suprised if a revolutionary console game reveals itself in the coming year to draw the media attention.

 

I agree, the game will slowly drop down from 500k or 400k, but I don't think anything lower than 200k... it depends really on how good this game is and how many people it convinces to get better systems. From here they'll probably increase from the extra marketting of their 360 version, but nowhere near 1 mil. The only way the game will make 1 mil is if the game really starts marketting all over the place, and this game definitely has potential. The most I could see at this point in time is a stable 500k, eventually, along with WAR, and from there possibly both could increase with the help of one another... heck, maybe because of this competition they could reach 1 mil together, I already had a post of this similar idea already, but at this point I'm not so sure either of those can make that mark. Any game with 500k is doing fantastic, I don't even think EVE has those numbers.

Oh, and the only reason I quoted you Sheik instead of Vesa was because, the Xbox 360 number greatly outweighs that of the PS3 and the Wii. The statistics of people who own either of the three consoles is about %60 (360), %20, %20... but I'm sure the console version of this game will eventually move along to the other console types, if they know what's good for them.

40% is a rather large portion to have taken away from your potential subscribers.

You basically have to realize that the entire MMORPG market is from WoW... at least around 90% (I'm using a lot of percentages aren't I?). You can guarantee that, just like when the OB first appeared, new members were coming out of nowhere bashing the game, that new members will come again by release complaining about how their 1980 macintosh won't play the game flawlessly.

We're a very spoiled community, thanks to what WoW did when it came to marketting to the populas. It was good on their part, but brought down the community in another spectrum when it comes to certain expectations. In this case, the two that will be the biggest at launch for this game, will be gaming performance at launch (which even WoW didn't have) and playability with their certain rigs.

Expect a big drop from release.

In the end ...

it's always gameplay that prevails.

Pokemon, Zelda, Wow, Pac Man or Wii hardware: it's the play that counts.--- not the number of pixels.

And I have seen VERY few positive gameplay comments these days.

Games never did sell on pixels alone. Sony and XBox learned this the hard way.

Originally posted by miagisan

400k initial launch. possibly 500k.

1 month in still retention, 400k

3 months 250k

6 months 150-200k

1 year. 100k - 150k'ish.....stable population.

 

There's my prediction

I guess 3 months number will allready depend how much fun the endgame (pvp/raiding) is. And everything after will depend on regular content patches, maybe expansions...

ok before you all call me loco...please let me clarify why i predicted the way i did.

yes, this game will have a huge following in the beginning. I have no doubts about this. But taking into the economy, gas prices, cost of living, and if this game will truly catch the eye of the "mature" gamer, then i do see it falling off alot, especially at 6 months time. Why? This is based pretty much on 3 factors.

1) Hardware and performance....i know myself, i have been looking into getting a new pc and mobo for some time, i have a 5200+, which is max on my mobo. But i have obligations to my mortgage, work etc, especially since i have to drive or take the train into manhattan at least 3 days a week for my job, that is a minimum of $30 a day for 3 days...not including lunch and such..its $100 bucks a week. Now if server performance is top notch with an ultra optimized client/server...then yes this wont be a factor. But if i have to upgrade to be in a seige or pvp or even more than 15-20 people in an area, i know i would rather just cancel then look into upgrading again.

Also alot of people are going to try it for the hype, but either cant or are not willing to upgrade their cpu to play a game. While this may not be your avid gamer, most casual gamers will not spend this kind of money for a game. Especially with the economy tanking as fast as it is.

2) End game?

Noone knows if the end game will be enough to keep people occupied for a 6 month to a year period. Raiding is becoming slowly more and more like a job, and while some enjoy it, its a played out system which is being copied in every other game. So while in the beginning it might seem cool, what does this bring to the table that other games don't have? Mix this  with possible poor server performance, and people will go back to eq2, wow, lotro, etc...which has better clients with the same raiding aspects.

And pvp for end game? well, let's see where that leads. if the 48 per side cap is truth, then you wont have your epics, mercenaries are pretty much useless in this game at this cap, since this game WILL cater to the large and powerful guilds. And then the ganking issue, which will be another factor on how fast end game pvp will be affected by the current pvp system.

These are alot of variables in which i feel, even if one of them  starts lacking or frustrating players, then the others start falling like dominoes.

3) WAR

Yes, i know and acknowledge that WAR and AoC are two totally different communities, but this hits at around the 6 month mark, and WAR has a huge, almost cultish following. While i have never personally never play a warhammer video game (though i just picked up WH 40K cause i heard it was awesome), pnp, tabletop, etc. I can acknowledge the fact WILL have a huge influence on the mmo community. Just by the sheer following the prior games/pnp/etc have had. Warhammer has always been huge, though i have never been a part of it.

so while yes, you might see a spike from xbox players in the coming months, i do think war, no matter how bad, or how good the game is, will affect alot more of the mmorpg world than anyone thinks, even if i am not a fan, nor i may not purchase it, i can't deny it's got a friggen huge following.

<response to jackman>

I played MxO as well and I agree, the combat system was very well done. I wish the game was just as great as it was during the months after release. One of the few games I have actually enjoyed the entire journey to level 50. Send me a message if you still play, I may look into signing up until October.

If that were completely true, then we'd still be in the era of 16 bit pixel games. It's a vicious cycle.